We could be running out of time to send astronauts to Mars
America's current plans for human space exploration seem horribly slow, considering we won't leave Earth's orbit until 2025 and won't reach Mars until 2035. Worse than that, solar radiation spikes could keep us grounded for decades more.
The Sun emits a steady stream of potentially deadly cosmic radiation. As long as humans remain within the Earth's atmosphere, the threat posed by this radiation is practically nil, but any extended trips into deep space require careful shielding to protect astronauts from the threat of radiation sickness or cancer. The exact levels of radiation vary depending on the severity of solar activity, which falls into a number of predictable cycles.
That's where the problem starts, according to a new study by NASA scientist John Norbury. We already know about the Schwabe cycle, which shows sunspot activity reaches its peak, known as the solar maximum, every 11 years. When this occurs, there's a big increase in solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which together spread deadly radiation throughout the solar system. The last solar maximum was reached in 2002, so we're headed for more in 2013, 2024, and 2035. Those last two dates are worrying, considering the current "2025 out of orbit/2035 to Mars" plans of the United States.
Of course, if solar flares really are a problem, then it's easy enough to adjust the years slightly to avoid them. But we might be dealing with an even bigger problem - there's also the Gleissberg cycle, which is a longer cycle where the intensity of the solar maximums themselves wax and wane over a period of about 80 to 90 years. That means all flares would be significantly more deadly, the radiation would be greater, and any trips beyond Earth's orbit incredibly, perhaps impossibly, dangerous.
So when is the next time we hit the peak of the Gleissberg cycle? That's the problem - we don't know, at least not exactly. In order to know the exact timing of the next Gleissberg maximum, we would have to know when the last ones occurred, and that would require sunspot records going back centuries, which is something we don't have. However, there are some indirect ways to estimate when the previous maximums occurred, mostly involving carbon-14.
Scientists are fairly sure the last maximums were in 1790, 1870, and 1950. That seems to put the next Gleissberg maximum at right around 2030, with a total danger zone of about 20 years from 2020 to 2040. That's precisely when the United States - not to mention China and other countries - hope to send astronauts back to the Moon and onto Mars. If radiation levels are lethally high, a Mars mission could be a horrific failure, as astrobiologist Lewis Dartnell explains:
"The worse-case scenario is that if you radiate a crew sufficiently, they'd all succumb to radiation sickness within a few days and essentially vomit and diarrhoea themselves to death within an enclosed capsule."
If all these fears of increased radiation come to pass, it still might be possible to send astronauts to Mars, assuming radiation shielding can be suitably improved. But that's going to take serious investment in new technologies that can repel the cosmic rays without creating secondary radiation. Honestly, it might just be easier to get to Mars by the end of the decade. Hey, it worked for the Apollo project...
[Advances in Space Research via Physics World]
Send an email to Alasdair Wilkins, the author of this post, at alasdair@io9.com.
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Savant74
11/05/10
Whatever ship they build to take people to mars, they better have at least a little protection from cosmic rays. Lead would be difficult to get into space but a nice thick layer of that would help, even if it's just around a small section of the ship.
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Feyhra
11/05/10
Divert auxiliary power to the shields. That should deal with that pesky solar radiation. Failing that, couldn't we just send a few expendable skin jobs instead? Those will be a dime a dozen in 2035.
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Szin
11/05/10
I'm going to Mars the old fashioned way!
Jester21
11/05/10
Vomit and diarrhea to death?... Or become superheroes?!...
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Rick Lucey
11/05/10
Space the final and deadly frontier. I wonder if we will ever get out there maybe if we find the cure.
bma2192
11/05/10
Do we not have materials that block radiation? If we plan to eventually colonize space, we're going to be running into all kinds of radiation... why not get into the habit of building space craft and space suits that can handle it instead of waiting for the weather to get better? Do you think people in Seattle just stay in their houses waiting for the rain to go away?? Make a raincoat and go already!
Thats what we get for nickel and diming stuff like this-- we cant explore SPACE with contractors who win the lowest bid... its depressing to know that budgets and money keep us back more often than our technical advances. Our knowledge and tech could take us so much further if not for this fictional piece of green paper we give so much power to-- and, yes, I wish I had a solution, cause nobody is going to work their asses off with no tangible compensation to look forward to... damn, now Im just rambling... oh well, get private funding and build 'em thicker and heavier-- there must be a way, right?
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Arken
11/05/10
Radiation shielding will always be a major problem on an Earth-Mars journey that will have to be solved adequately anyway. This will make it more difficult, but the problem is always there.
deondt
11/05/10
Most people don't believe in the prophecy of the Bible, but if one reads Revelation and consider all these statements together, then the outcome becomes a bit more clearer ... however, the ultimate truth & future remains a mystery known only to the One in control (the Director, namely God). Those who despise this message & don't believe will some day (soon) realize its reality ..., D
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Dr Emilio Lizardo
11/05/10
That might be the worst case scenario but the best case scenario is that the astronauts develop all kinds of cool new mutations and become superheroes.
Kaijima Dracon
11/05/10
Such alarmism always makes me roll my eyes. It's not that radiation cycles aren't a valid concern; they're a big issue.
But every time someone opens their mouth and talks about how we're doomed because some naturally occurring facet of the universe is gonna be tough to deal with, I ask: "Look, if we are going to survive in space, don't we have to find ways to deal with these supposedly insurmountable problems anyway?"
The solar system may as well go ahead and turn up the heat. It's a problem we've got to solve or long-term space travel will be too stilted and marginalized to be of real value in the first place.
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Anciegher
11/05/10
Shields up!
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Illundiel
11/05/10
Would building a Dyson sphere solve the problem?
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diasdiem
11/05/10
The best-case scenario is that when they arrive on Mars they will now have super powers.
Edited by diasdiem at 11/05/10 8:38 AM
John Reck
11/05/10
Worst cast scenario? They shit themselves to death in the cold vacuum of space. But what about the best cast scenario? All I read was "cosmic rays."
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BangarangRufio867
11/05/10
The side effects of radiation sickness are almost identical to that of a bad hangover. I say, just drink some coffee, take some tylenol, and smoke some weed. Should take care of the radiation sickness.
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VicViper
11/05/10
If comic books have taught me anything, I think we should just send astronauts when there is the most radiation possible and eagerly await for their return as super humans.
emeraldcite
11/05/10
Probably a non-issue. Since the whole date thing is really arbitrary as no admin is providing critical, safe-from-cuts funding to really get this, in a most literal way, off the ground.
Besides, we're talking two decades. In politics and funding, that's several life cycles.
I think the original statement was simply a "don't worry, we're still committed to stuff" statement and not any real plan.
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Graviton1066
11/05/10
This concern about solar radiation seems completely overblown and needlessly alarmist.
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corpore-metal
11/05/10
I'm rolling my eyes at this alarmism. The solar max will pass and we can send astronauts after it. It's not like we'll be grounded for all eternity.
That said, solar radiation is a hazard. It was why they had to be careful when they sent astronauts to the Moon. They didn't want to send them on weeks or months when Old Sol was feeling her oats.
FrankN.Stein
11/05/10
and why should that be a problem...Oh...I See....
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TemporalSword
11/05/10
Hey, we had a rocket system designed specifically to go back to the moon and then on to Mars well on its way. But thanks to Obama and his administration, that program was scrapped and now we're looking to start all over again. Why don't you tell this to the people who decide our funding?
Edited by TemporalSword at 11/05/10 8:11 AM
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sephycloneno15
11/05/10
But even if we Apollo it and get to Mars ASAP, it's not like we can do much other than plant a flag, grab some rocks, and skedaddle home before the solar flares kick up and fry any astronauts that don't manage to pack up and go right away, right? Mars has a practically nonexistent atmosphere that isn't going to let us do much while we're there except tell everyone we've been there unless we manage to develop those improved radiation shielding techniques anyways, right?
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zim11
11/05/10
Maybe but I thought those clever scientist are trying to build a working electromagnetic shield to deflect the dangerous radiation.>
The BBC did a story on it ages ago, there is probably more update info on the net somewhere.
Edit : What the hell happened to my txt ?
[news.bbc.co.uk]
Edited by zim11 at 11/05/10 8:09 AM
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ManchuCandidate
11/05/10
Then the Prophesy of the Incredible Melting Man comes true.
[en.wikipedia.org]
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