Three launches of the heavy is enough for four to Mars Missions. Another three is good for the return ship. The supper heavy and orbit assembly are not needed. The plan to use the the spent upper stage used to throw the payload to Mars and then use it as counter mass to give enough artificial or spin gravity makes zero gravity is not a problem. A solar storm shelter using food and such protects them from the worst of the radiation hazards. No new inventions are needed, but some engineering is needed.
Six years would be pushing it, eight is reasonable. More that twelve years will cost more. A good one way to settle or nearly a "Mars Direct" two way mission would both cost about the same. The two way mission requires the return ship be designed, built, and sent before humans. The one way settlement should go with a different set of equipment so they can be productive quickly producing lots of local stuff up to doing simple mining, manufacturing, construction, and agriculture to use local resources to supply almost all human needs. This is what we need to practically settle outer space.
Either two way, or one way to start to settle will be more than a world class accomplishment. Both plans need some engineering, but not new inventions. See "Mars Direct" for about the best round trip Mars plan. See "Mars Homestead Project" or http://marshome.org/ to know more about two plans to settle Mars.
Jim Brown
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