Measuring The Depth Of India's Space Program

LVM-3 launch One weakness in Indian space capabilities is the lack of a heavy-lift rocket: the LVM-3 (above) can place only about 10 tons into orbit. (credit: ISRO) Measuring the depth of India’s space program by Namrata Goswami Tuesday, September 3, 2024 Bookmark and Share India is emerging as a major Asian powerhouse with respect to space capabilities because of its great power ambition and domestic necessity. In 2024, India became the fifth largest economy in the world in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at $3.94 trillion. Towards developing this economy, and aspiring for deeper sustainable growth factors, India has identified several technologies as vital to its path to greatness by 2047, the hundred-year celebration of the establishment of an independent democratic India from nearly two hundred years of British colonial rule. Among those technologies is space, for which Space Vision 2047 has been advanced by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) under the rubric of India’s 2047 Vision. As per its 2047 Vision, India specifies that it aspires to “becoming self-reliant in defence and space sectors and enhancing India’s role in the world”. If we are to measure India’s military space capabilities in comparison to China and the US, it cannot compete today at the same level but that could change in the next 20 years or so. For India, given its large demographic dividend, which will peak around 2041, advancing high-end technologies is seen as a way to take advantage of that young and highly skilled demographic. I have written here about India’s Space Vision 2047 and some of the ambitions that India has articulated, including developing the first robotic phase of its space station by 2028, completing its space station by 2035, and a lunar human landing and habitation by 2040. According to the chairman of ISRO, S. Somanath, “We have a roadmap for what we have planned till 2047… We can build a space station, we can send human beings to the moon, and we can create moon-based economic activity in space”. In his speech on the occasion of India’s 78th anniversary of independence on August 15 Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned India’s aspiration to develop its space station. For the next few years, India plans to spend around $3 billion on space, with development of its counterspace capabilities taking priority. This aspect was highlighted by General Anil Chauhan, Chief of Defense Staff (CDS), who called for greater investments in India’s military space sector, specifically by developing partnerships with the private space sector. If we are to measure India’s military space capabilities in comparison to China and the US, it cannot compete today at the same level but that could change in the next 20 years or so. China has 360 satellites dedicated to intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), with nearly 245 of them being military satellites according to The Military Balance. The US has approximately 247 military satellites, but India has just nine military satellites in 2024. Both the US and China are far ahead of India when it comes to megaconstellations, with the US-based SpaceX’s Starlink constellation dominating, and now followed by China with its own megaconstellation plans. India is aspiring to develop satellite Internet as well, but there is no clear government plan to make it a critical infrastructure. One way that India is attempting to close the gap is to develop and support private-based large constellations like that of OneWeb, which has 633 satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). However, Eutelsat, which owns OneWeb, was kept from reaching its goal of global coverage due to regulatory delays in India specifically from IN-SPACE (Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Center), which regulates such activities. Such delays can come in the way of a truly competitive private space environment in India. According to the 2023 Global Competitiveness Index, India is ranked 40th. The report stated that India continues to be weak when it comes to “business efficiency, infrastructure, and economic performance”. IN-SPACE says that India’s space economy has the potential to reach $44 billion by 2033, adding about eight percent to the global space economy. However, such projections must be supported by a better business competitiveness index and faster and more efficient regulatory processes. However, India does not possess a heavy-lift rocket, which could limit some of its ambitious goals like building its space station or lunar exploration. India has done well in the launch area with several systems: the four-stage Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) with a launch capacity of 1.5 tons to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), and 2 tons to Sun-synchronous orbit; the three-stage Geosynchronous Launch Vehicle (GSLV)-Mk-II with a payload launch capacity of 2 tons to GTO and 6 tons to LEO; and the three-stage LVM-3, which has a payload launch capacity of 4 tons to GTO and 10 tons to LEO. The Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV), which successfully launched for the first time in 2023, can put about half a ton into orbit. Accoring to India’s CDS, General Anil Chauhan, India should be “investing in launch on-demand capabilities in the near future. As the national requirements of ISR, PNT [Precision, Navigation, and Timing], and communication grow, this will resultantly increase the number of Indian satellites orbiting the space, [thus requiring the need for] securing these particular assets, which will require space situational awareness.” This launch on demand can be met to an extent by the SSLV as it’s a solid-fueled rocket, “configured with three Solid Propulsion Stages and liquid propulsion based Velocity Trimming Module (VTM) as a terminal stage”. This kind of launch-on-demand capability is vital from a national security perspective given the growth of counterspace capabilities from countries like China, with whom India suffers from territorial conflicts. In case an Indian satellite is destroyed by China’s non-kinetic measures like jamming, spoofing, or lasers, India should possess the capability to launch a satellite on demand to replace a damaged satellite. India’s commercial sector is also developing its launchers like Skyroot Aerospace’s Vikram series of rockets. However, India does not possess a heavy-lift rocket, which could limit some of its ambitious goals like building its space station or lunar exploration, as discussed below. ISRO’s New Space India Ltd (NSIL) released a Request for Qualification in May 2024 to develop such a launcher in the next 14 years. India has also tested a series of reusable spaceplanes, with its third and final Reusable Launch Vehicle-RLV (LEX) called Pushpak executing “precise horizontal landing” based on autonomous capabilities in June 2024. Pushpak was released from a low altitude in that test, so the key challenge will be to test it in orbit and bring it back to Earth safely. India’s military space capacities have undergone significant changes with the establishment of two new institutions, the Defense Space Agency (DSA) and the Defense Space Research Organization. The DSA is a tri-service (Army, Navy, Air Force) agency and was created alongside India’s Defense Cyber Agency (DCA) in 2019. In collaboration with the Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), DSA aspires to build India’s defense space capacities, specifically focused on showcasing space power. This includes antisatellite capabilities (kinetic and non-kinetic), signal intelligence (SIGINT), communication intelligence (COMINT), and electronic intelligence (ELINT). In a Request for Information (RFI), the DSA pointed out that building a Mobile Launch System capable of launching about 0.71 tons, supported by an Integrated Launch Control Center, was of vital necessity. As it explained: Static launch sites are vulnerable to hostile actions and could be prime targets in case of hostilities. This necessitates development of transportable launchers which can be moved and deployed for launch as per convenience. It is proposed to develop Transportable/Mobile Launch Systems that can operate from ground/ aerial/ sea-based platforms to provide launch capabilities with flexibility of launch windows for different kind of payloads. The launch system should be all weather capable and be able to deploy satellites weighing upto 650 Kgs to altitudes up to 700 Kms. The system should be able to change from transportable position to ‘Launch ready position” in not more than 60 minutes. The DSA also called for an RFI regarding a Mobile Multi-Object Tracking Radar with a detection range of 250 kilometers and an ability to track about 15 objects, a modular small satellite bus that can integrate different payloads, and a GEO data relay satellite with an optical inter-satellite link capable of communicating with satellites in LEO. DSA highlighted the importance of developing a “GEO-AI-based Multi-Sensor Optical/Radar Equipment Siting Simulator” that will help deploy sensors faster. From an analysis of DSA’s RFI, we could infer that India wants to develop both a mobile launch capability and a diversified launch system consisting of solid- and liquid-propelled rockets. This, as mentioned above, is vital to replace defunct or damaged satellites that the Indian military depends on. The absence of a military space doctrine that identifies India’s military space focus renders India’s strategic position weak, both in terms of power projection but also for building space-based partnerships. There are calls for the Indian Air Force to be renamed the Indian Air and Space Forces. This move reflects the growing significance of space in India’s military culture. In 2017, a Joint Doctrine was issued by India’s Integrated Headquarters of the Integrated Defense Staff (HQ IDS) that views space as a multi-domain operation. In Chapter VI of the joint doctrine, titled “Concepts of Military Power Application”, there is a section on space power that specifies that “space is a medium like land, sea, air and cyber through which various activities are likely to expand in the future. Emergence of space power is analogous to conventional land, sea or air power that will mark it out as a ‘Revolution in Military Affairs’. Space bestows immense force multiplication capability on the Armed Forces, and the dependence on space assets for military operation is rapidly increasing…” I have written here that despite all of this, the absence of a military space doctrine that identifies India’s military space focus renders India’s strategic position weak, both in terms of power projection but also for building space-based partnerships since partner nations are unsure of what the focus of India’s military space investments are aimed at. Clarity in matters of national security is a requirement given India is poised to emerge as a prominent international player, with a robust economy and a demographic dividend. It might also have to take over leadership roles in the Indo-Pacific and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad. If we measure India’s space capacities, India fares pretty well regarding launch systems, getting to the lunar surface, entering Mars orbit, and developing LEO-based satellite constellations. However, if India is serious about meeting some of its grand goals of lunar habitation and human lunar landing, or building a large space station, then it has to develop a heavy-lift rocket. Currently, the maximum India’s launch systems can lift is 10 tons to LEO and 4 tons to GTO, compared to China’s Long March 5 with a lift capacity of 25 tons to LEO and 14 tons to GTO, and SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, which can lift up to 64 tons to LEO and 26 tons to GTO, with the added advantage that its first stage is reusable. In February 2024, Japan successfully launched its H3 rocket into orbit with a launch capacity of 6.5 tons to GTO. This comparison shows that India needs to build a medium- or heavy-lift rocket to meet some of its stated goals. India has successfully developed its cryogenic engine and stages for improved performance. However, it is important to note that the Department of Space’s vision for the Indian space program does not include the development of a heavy-lift rocket as a priority. To conclude, India is a major space power thanks to its advanced launch capacity, its ability to reach the Moon and other planetary bodies, and its ability to develop these capacities indigenously. The Indian government’s decision to collaborate with its nascent private space sector to develop space capabilities, both in the civil and military fields, has enormous potential to develop India’s space capabilities in the next decade or so. Where India has some serious catching up to do, though, is its medium- and heavy-lift space launch capability and reusable launch, as well as developing a diversified launch platform, something like China has developed through its solid, liquid, and mobile space launch systems. Chinese space company LandSpace has the distinction of launching the world’s first methane-propelled rocket to orbit. Another Chinese company, CAS Space, is developing reusable rockets. Where India’s matrix on space power takes the hardest hit is the lack of strategic clarity regarding the “why” of its space policies and investments. Perhaps, the time has come for India to revisit some of its civil and military space postures to provide strategic clarity for itself and its partner nations. Namrata Goswami, Ph.D. teaches space policy, and international relations at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State University. Currently, she is working on a book on space power theory. Note: we are now moderating comments. There will be a delay in posting comments and no guarantee that all submitted comments will be posted.