China Will Orbit Mars By 2050

Long March 10 The Long March 10, a rocket being developed to support China’s plans for landing humans on the Moon, will likely play a tole in plans for human missions to Mars as well. (credit: CCTV) The real space race: China will send a crew to orbit Mars by 2050 by Kristin Burke Monday, April 28, 2025 The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) scientific community established China’s broad timelines for crewed Moon and Mars missions simultaneously in 2009. At that time, the Chinese Academy of Science’s (CAS’s) 40-year technology forecast called Space Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050 was largely seen as unofficial and aspirational.[1] However, the scientists’ forecast for a crewed Moon landing “around 2030” has turned out to be an accurate prediction, assuming all goes to plan.[2] This report examines CAS’s second prediction for “crewed Mars exploration around 2050.”[3] By applying lessons learned from China’s release of information on its timeline for a crewed lunar landing, this report shows that there is already Chinese top leadership support for a crewed Martian mission, based on statements from many informed individuals, including those from China’s Manned Space Engineering Office (CMSE). To shed light on if “around 2050” could end up being “before 2050,” as it has in the lunar case, this report describes the internal and external drivers for why the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) supports a crewed Mars mission to celebrate China’s second centennial anniversary in 2049. It also briefly explains that the PRC’s founding happens to co-occur with opportune physics enabling at least two excellent Mars launch windows before 2049. By applying lessons learned from China’s release of information on its timeline for a crewed lunar landing, this report shows that there is already Chinese top leadership support for a crewed Martian mission. This report considers an initial orbit-only mission, to accurately reflect what the CAS forecast says and to support follow-on studies. The CAS technology forecast specifically distinguished between a “crewed Lunar landing around 2030” and “crewed Mars exploration around 2050,” i.e. it does not say Mars landing.[4] Within this scope, this report discusses what Chinese researchers have said about relevant launch windows and highlights select technology milestones for space watchers to track. Last, this report poses three questions policymakers should consider when determining the implications for the United States, as well as flags alternative space missions the PRC could use to celebrate its second centennial. What did we learn from the Lunar case? This report applies two lessons learned from China’s gradual announcement of its plan to land a crew on the Moon: Chinese statements from informed individuals may be just as authoritative as statements from official CMSE representatives. Limited publicly available information on key technologies to enable the Chinese mission shouldn’t be a strong reason to discount statements from informed individuals. In other words, the two types of information are separate but equal indicators. Generally speaking, when a Chinese official makes an announcement to national Chinese media, outside observers have confidence that those statements reflect top leaders’ views. The reason for that is because the CCP manages the media and PRC officials are sensitive to toeing the party line to protect their careers. This fact influenced seasoned Western space watchers to discount State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) statements about a Chinese crewed lunar landing.[5] To some, it seemed more likely that the SOE rocket engineers’ business incentives, rather than CCP support for a lunar mission, drove the engineers’ proposed timelines. (SOE economic success, after all, is also a CCP goal.) For example, just after CAS published its 2009 space technology forecast, two vocal space SOE representatives—now-retired China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) representative Long Lehao and now retired China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) representative Ye Peijian—stated that, “the [crewed lunar] mission is technically possible in 2025.”[6] Those same representatives in 2021 and in 2022 said, “a crewed landing [on the Moon] is entirely possible by 2030.”[7] At last, in mid- 2023, CMSE announced that China will attempt to land taikonauts on the Moon “before 2030,” and outside observers finally accepted their timeline.[8] Regarding lesson one, Western space watchers do not fully understand the relationship between China’s official messaging and SOE statements, especially in a national strategic industry with a long legacy like the space sector. In the case of assessing China’s commitment to a crewed lunar landing, Western space watchers had less confidence in SOE and China National Space Administration leaders’ (CNSA) statements.[9] Instead, space watchers waited for official announcements from CMSE because CMSE is directly in charge of the astronaut program.[10] In this case, some SOE representatives turned out to be well informed. It is still important to be cautious, however, because the rising generation of Chinese space program managers may not have the same access to information. Regarding lesson two, information on necessary equipment, such as the lunar spacesuits and the crewed lunar lander, wasn’t publicly available until after CMSE’s announcement.[11] Technology readiness is usually a major factor in leaders’ willingness to make official announcements, so outside observers naturally looked for other signs in absence of confirmation from CMSE. However, technological developments take more effort to spot and when observing China, other signals are just as important. In China, aspirational statements indicate leadership intent. When official media repeats high level aspirations, local stakeholders can take action.[12] For example, the CAS 40-year technology forecast was indeed aspirational, but more authoritative than originally expected. The People’s Daily in 2013 publicized CAS’s timeline with the headline, “CAS: China expects to achieve crewed Lunar landing and build a Lunar base around 2030.”[13] The People’s Daily article goes on to say that China’s lunar base will enable “crewed Mars voyages.”[14] This example illustrates that an organization like CAS can represent top leadership intent and steer technology developers at national and local levels in the leader’s desired direction. The major lesson learned is that repeated statements of aspiration matter. If outside observers wait to confirm technology readiness, they may discount other important signals and fail to examine the relationship between key SOE and CNSA stakeholders and the CCP.[15] , Why does China aspire to conduct crewed Mars exploration by 2050? China’s domestic drivers are just as important, if not more important, than external drivers for its ambition for a crewed Mars mission by 2050. Many signs indicate that the CCP intends a crewed Mars mission as one of many steps to symbolically and materially support China’s second centennial goal of achieving national rejuvenation at the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PRC in 2049.[16] In general, Chinese leaders often use space missions to celebrate key events.[17] In particular, China’s first centennial for the 100th anniversary of the CCP was in 2021 and they celebrated with the successful landing of the robotic Tianwen-1 Mars rover. The CCP’s 100th anniversary was on July 1, 2021; Tianwen-1 entered Mars orbit in February and successfully landed in May.[18] Xi Jinping’s congratulatory message said, “On the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the CCP, the Tianwen-1 mission successfully landed…”[19] For China’s second centennial, Xi Jinping expects “national rejuvenation” by 2049. Space plays an important role in China’s plan for national rejuvenation and a global first such as a crewed mission to Mars would be worth celebrating. More broadly, Chinese leaders marked the first centennial with achieving what they called “a moderately prosperous society,” which included both economic and social components.[20] Even in this regard, the Chinese space sector played a role. The opening of China’s commercial space sector in 2014 was part of a slew of policy shifts to widen the social benefits of national strategic industries towards achieving the first centennial goal.[21] Since then, China has continued to expand the benefits of the space industrial base for the crewed space program and deep space exploration across provinces beyond national level organizations.[22] This diversification of Chinese organizations and localities contributing to space technologies makes identifying key developments more complex for outside observers. For China’s second centennial, Xi Jinping expects “national rejuvenation” by 2049.[23] Space plays an important role in China’s plan for national rejuvenation and a global first such as a crewed mission to Mars would be worth celebrating. For example, Xi Jinping recently said, “the spirit of space exploration can further enhance the national confidence and pride of the Chinese people…and [enhance] realizing national rejuvenation.”[24] Apart from the symbolism and national pride, the CCP also intends China’s space program to materially contribute to the second centennial goal through spurring innovation. Xi Jinping in a 2017 speech said that by 2035 China will become a global leader in innovation.[25] And in particular, a widely cited Chinese space industry report stated that by 2045 China will take the lead in select space technology areas.[26] From the Chinese perspective, the domestic drivers for the completion of a crewed Mars mission by 2049 are just as strong, if not stronger, than the external drivers. That said, achieving a global first for its crewed space program would also cement China’s position as a top global space leader, equal to the United States. Competition with the United States is just one aspect of the external drivers. Just as important, leading global space exploration would allow the CCP to demonstrate that China has met its second centennial goal to become “a global leader in terms of composite national strength and international influence” and “a proud and active member of the community of nations.”[27] A link between China’s national rejuvenation and international influence implies that China will continue to find ways for international participation in its space program, likely to include the missions to Mars. How committed is China’s government to crewed Mars exploration by 2050? Applying lessons learned, both the authoritative CMSE and informed SOE representatives have already openly discussed that China is planning a crewed Mars mission. For example, in an interview at the annual National People’s Congress in 2018 the CMSE Chief Designer Zhang Baoan said the technology for a crewed mission to the Moon can be used to ferry a crew around Mars.[28] The CMSE website published Chief Engineer Zhou Jianping’s statements in 2021 and 2022 that, “We will aim for Mars.”[29] Even more telling, Chinese official media quoted China’s first taikonaut Yang Liwei in 2022 saying that, “China’s manned space program will go deeper into space…and there will be crewed exploration of Mars.”[30] If space watchers follow the same logic as in the lunar case, these statements should confirm Chinese leaders’ intent. Apart from intent, SOE and CNSA representatives are again leading messaging of possible timelines for a Chinese crewed Mars mission around 2050. For example, as early as 2015, one of the same SOE representatives, Long Lehao, said that the earliest possible crewed Mars mission would be 2035.[31] A different SOE leader, Wang Xiaojun, in 2020 and at the 2021 Global Space Exploration (GLEX) Conference also stated that the earliest date for a crewed mission was around 2035.[32] Even CNSA representatives are publicizing China’s crewed Mars mission at international forums. CNSA’s 2023 and 2024 presentations at the UN Committee of Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) depicted a crewed deep space orbiting vehicle around 2040.[33] Representatives from China’s new Deep Space Exploration Lab (DSEL) showed the crewed vehicle returning atmospheric samples from Venus in 2033 and a Mars research base in 2038.[34] This may very well foreshadow that “around 2050” is shifting to “by 2050.”